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By Richard Bloom

Why You Should Avoid Practicing Market Timing

There are many things that could affect the overall equity market and any individual stocks you may own—from economic trends to geopolitical events like an election. What is certain is that the market will always have its peaks and dips.

This market cycle can make it tempting for investors to attempt to buy and sell stocks at particular times to maximize gains and avoid down periods. This investment strategy is known as market timing, the practice of moving in and out of the market based on predicting when the market will shift.¹

Missing out on Market Moves

Although the idea of market timing can be tempting, it is also extremely difficult for most investors to predict the future of the market. In fact, those who try to time the market may actually underperform investors who simply buy and hold stocks.²

One reason is the tendency of the market to experience big upswings and downswings on adjacent days during periods of market volatility. That means an investor who sells after a substantial down day for the market may miss a subsequent period of gains. Also, many investors let emotions dictate their actions, leading them to buy stocks when the market has already gained in value, only to sell when the market has declined, leading to sluggish returns. Moreover, even with sophisticated tools to analyze the factors affecting stock prices, it is very difficult to forecast future stock market movements.

Also, missing out on just some days in a market cycle can drag down returns considerably. The S&P 500 generated an annualized return of 9.6% between 1990 to 2018 for investors who were invested during that entire period. Investors who missed just the 15 best days during that period only enjoyed returns of 3.6%, and investors who missed the best 90 days actually suffered an annualized loss of 3.5%.³

Market Timing Can Carry Costs

Along with possibly missing out on market gains, market timing can have other penalties. The transaction costs from buying and selling stocks can add up and drag down overall returns. In addition, investors who do sell stocks for a gain will likely trigger capital gains taxes, again reducing their overall profit.1

Creating and staying with a financial strategy can help you avoid making rash moves in response to what’s happening in the market. A Financial Advisor can help you tailor a framework that’s set against your long-term goals and considers key aspects of your financial life, from your age and aspirations to current market opportunities. While market conditions may vary, a personalized, adaptable wealth strategy that’s centered around your life goals should remain a constant as you build your wealth and plan for your future.

FOOTNOTES

1 – https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp
2 – https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2016/03/07/the-myth-of-market-timing/#53448611461e
3 – Morgan Stanley Client Conversations & Primers, Intro to Investing PDF – Market Timing Is a Flawed and Costly Strategy Charts

DISCLOSURES

Article by Morgan Stanley and provided courtesy of Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor.

Richard Bloom is a Financial Advisor in 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10104 at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (“Morgan Stanley”). He can be reached by email at Richard.Bloom@morganstanley.com or by telephone at (212) 893-7597.

This article has been prepared for informational purposes only. The information and data in the article has been obtained from sources outside of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley makes no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or data from sources outside of Morgan Stanley. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this article may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (“Morgan Stanley”) and its Financial Advisors and Private Wealth Advisors do not provide any tax/legal advice. Consult your own tax/legal advisor before making any tax or legal-related investment decisions.

Richard Bloom may only transact business, follow-up with individualized responses, or render personalized investment advice for compensation, in states where he is registered or excluded or exempted from registration, http://brokercheck.finra.org/Search/Search.aspx.

In today’s complex and volatile markets, making sound investment and financial decisions is a challenge. Investing on your own can be complicated, overwhelming and risky. In fact, studies have shown that self-directed investors can often be their own worst enemies, entering and exiting the market at inopportune times in reaction to market movements that make them uncomfortable or emotional.

Steps to Successful Investment

Successful investing involves fortitude and a focus on the long term. The first steps you can take toward minimizing the likelihood of costly mistakes are:

1. Understanding the emotional and behavioral factors that contribute to investor pitfalls

Psychology influences the choices investors make, such as how often they trade and how they make buy-sell decisions. Common psychological blind spots include:

Overconfidence – assuming you know more than you do.
Mental accounting – consciously or unconsciously dividing your wealth into separate buckets.
Anchoring – fixating on past prices, such as what you paid for a particular stock.
Loss aversion – putting more emphasis on avoiding losses.

2. Defining your goals and developing a plan–and an asset allocation–that helps you reach them

Having a plan and sticking to it can help you avoid making emotional decisions.

3. Having the discipline to stay the course as markets fluctuate

Some investors try to time the market by moving in and out of it. Professional advice can help keep you focused by taking emotions out of the equation.

Your Financial Life Is More Than Just Your Investments

Over the past few years, the proliferation of robo-advisors that provide digital financial advice based on algorithms has received significant buzz. While robo advice offers a low-cost entry into investing, it also comes with little to no human intervention. Instead, an asset allocation is generated from an investor’s answers to an online questionnaire. But, how you value money–and what you believe about money–cannot be captured or solved by mathematical rules or algorithms.

The bottom line is that you want advice that connects with your thinking, experiences and beliefs around money.

If you’re deciding among traditional Financial Advisors or robo-advisors, consider the following:

What is most important to you at this stage of your financial life?
How confident are you in your financial knowledge?
Are you able to take emotions out of your financial decision-making?
What are the financial complexities that you currently face?

If there are complexities in your financial life–debt, children, employee benefits, major life events, estate and tax issues–you may want to consider choosing a traditional Financial Advisor who can help you customize a plan that is tailored to your specific situation.

And, keep in mind that reaching your goals often involves going beyond investment advice to include conversations about estate and wealth transfer planning, risk management and even your philanthropic aspirations.

By working with an experienced Financial Advisor, you can have the best of both worlds–the freedom to make your own investment and financial choices, but with the guidance of a professional who understands your unique needs, improving your chances of achieving your goals.

Disclosures

Article by Morgan Stanley and provided courtesy of Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor.

Asset Allocation does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets.